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Price per m²: why that figure misleads more than it informs

The price per square metre aggregates properties that have nothing in common and assumes a proportionality that does not exist. How to read it without being misled, and what to look at instead.

The price per square metre is the most quoted and least reliable figure in the property market. It has one merit: it is simple. It has three flaws, and each is enough to skew a valuation.

Flaw 1: price is not proportional to floor area

Intuition says a property twice as large is worth twice as much. The market says otherwise. Part of a home's value — the land, the location, the kitchen, the bathroom, the connections — does not double when the floor area doubles.

The result: the price per m² falls as the area grows. A 40 m² studio shows a markedly higher price per m² than a 200 m² house on the same street, without that saying anything about the quality of either. Applying the municipality's price per m² to a large property overvalues it; applied to a small one, it undervalues it.

Flaw 2: the average aggregates incomparable properties

A municipal price per m² is calculated across all sales: studios and villas, new build and renovation projects, dark ground floors and top floors with a view. That is not the price of a property, it is the average of a heterogeneous population.

Two municipalities showing the same price per m² can have very different markets: one with many small flats expensive per metre, the other with family houses cheaper per metre but dearer per unit.

Flaw 3: the denominator itself is vague

« Habitable floor area » has no single definition in Belgium. Depending on practice, converted attics, the conservatory, the integrated garage, cellars or areas under 1.80 m in height may or may not count. Two listings for the same home can show 120 and 145 m².

Dividing a reliable price by an uncertain area does not produce a reliable ratio: it produces a ratio you cannot interpret.

What price per m² does well

It remains useful for comparing properties of the same kind within the same area: two flats of similar size, in the same neighbourhood, in the same condition. There the denominator is comparable and non-linearity barely comes into play.

It is also readable over time: tracking the price per m² of a homogeneous segment year after year says something true about the trend.

What to look at instead

A range, not a point. The gap between the first and third quartile of sales describes the market far better than a single value: it says both where the centre lies and how widely properties scatter around it.

Transaction volume. A median calculated on 400 annual sales and a median calculated on 9 sales do not read the same way. Volume conditions how much confidence the figure deserves.

Geographic granularity. Location explains a considerable share of price dispersion. Measured on Belgian statistical sectors, that dispersion drops clearly when moving from municipality to neighbourhood: the interquartile spread for houses falls from around 55 % of the median at municipal level to around 46 % at sector level (Source: Statbel, statistical sectors 2022-2024). In other words, close to a third of what « varies » within a municipality is not the property — it is the location.

The property's characteristics. Floor area, condition, energy performance, number of façades, outdoor space: each shifts the price, and each reduces uncertainty once known. That is what distinguishes a valuation from an average.

Sources

Price per m²: why that figure misleads more than it informs | Kiadah